Media release: Reliable population data is essential for measuring progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and to support the design of effective development policies and strategies

HA NOI, 14/6/2011 – At a dissemination conference organized today in Ha Noi to disseminate publications of the 2009 Population and Housing Census in Viet Nam, the General Statistics Office (GSO) and the United Nations (UN) in Viet Nam emphasized the importance of available, reliable and timely data to guide evidence-based development policymaking and programming.

“With support from the United Nations Population Fund in Viet Nam, the General Statistics Office has developed and disseminated a series of publications of the 2009 Viet Nam Population and Housing Census. In-depth analysis of the sample data from the Census have been carried out: such as Fertility and Mortality; Population projections; Age-sex structure and marital status; Migration and urbanization; Education; and the Sex ratio at birth. Several reports and monographs on these issues have been published to provide information on the current trends as well as policy recommendations. Data from this in-depth analysis have been added to the existing information and evidence-based data for effective planning and policymaking,” said Mr. Do Thuc, Director General of the General Statistics Office.

The GSO’s population projection for 2009-2049 suggests that Viet Nam’s population will reach 95.3 million in 2019, 102.7 million in 2029 and 108.7 million in 2049, according to the medium fertility scenario.

The in-depth analysis of census data on education indicates that the literacy rate of the population aged 15 years and over is 93.5 percent – an increase of 3.2 percent since 1999. There has been a sharp decline in the gender gap between literate males and females, falling from 10 per cent in 1989 to 4.4 per cent in 2009. This demonstrates consistent progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goal on the promotion of gender equality.

However, the literacy rate is still rather low among Thai, Khmer, and Hmong ethnic groups compared to the average level of the country. The rate of the population aged 5-18 years who are not attending school in southern provinces is very high, such as in Binh Duong (30.8 percent), Bac Lieu (26.2 percent), An Giang (25.9 percent) and Soc Trang (25.8 percent), indicating that Viet Nam faces challenges in improving the quality of education and human resource development.

“Looking beyond the coverage of educational services to the quality of education will be of paramount importance to Viet Nam’s socio-economic growth in the coming decades. Now that the country has reached middle-income status, increased investment in education that meets the special requirements of the changing domestic and global market is imperative,” emphasized Mr. Bruce Campbell, Acting United Nations Resident Coordinator in Viet Nam.

According to the analysis of census data on Viet Nam’s age and sex structure, the country has now entered the period known as the “demographic bonus”, which means that there is only one dependent person for every two or more working-age persons aged 15-64 years. This ‘golden’ period started in 2007 and is estimated to end in about 2041. This period usually happens only once in the demographic history of a nation, and can present a great opportunity for socio-economic advancement if appropriate policies are established for human resource development and job creation, especially for the young labour force.

At the same time, Viet Nam has begun a period in which it has a significant ageing population. The ageing index – which represents the proportion of persons aged 60 years and over to every 100 persons under 15 years of age – increased from 16.6 in 1979 to 35.5 in 2009. It is projected that this index will rapidly increase over the next several decades and will reach 100 in 2035, at which point there will be one child per elderly person; and reach 141 in 2041, when there will be 141 old persons per 100 children. Thus, although Viet Nam is entering the “golden” period, it also needs to prepare for population ageing by ensuring social security and health care services for the elderly, especially for old people who are poor and live with disabilities in rural areas.

While the sex ratio of the old-age population (60+) is relatively low (67.8) due to higher male mortality as a legacy of war, the sex ratio among children under 15 is high (106.9). This recent demographic phenomenon is primarily caused by the imbalanced sex ratio at birth (more boys born than girls). A deficit of adult women in a society can lead to a number of social, cultural, and economic challenges.

In addition, in-depth analysis of census data related to migration shows that the total number of migrants moving within and between provinces over the 2004-2009 period increased to 6.6 million people. The majority of migrants are young and the proportion of females among the migrant population has increased significantly. Internal migration is a driving force for development but also represents an emerging challenge.  Migration from rural to urban areas puts significant pressure on existing urban infrastructure and social services, and elderly, or children left behind are often more vulnerable.

The data collected from the 2009 Population and Housing Census is very important for the country’s socio-economic development planning. Furthermore, the data is also essential to monitor differences between urban and rural areas, geographical areas and vulnerable groups, especially ethnic minority people, as the nation strives to achieve the goals and targets set out in the Socio-Economic Development Plan, sectoral plans and strategies as well as measuring progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals.

For further information, please contact: