Press release socio-economic situation in the First quarter of 2025

INTERNATIONAL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT

The global situation has been becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, especially with the policies of the United States and the reactions of other countries. The growing geopolitical uncertainty and trade policies have put pressure on investment and household spending. The tariff tensions between the United States and other countries, along with the looming threat of a trade war, have negatively impacted on global economic growth. Additionally, natural disasters and climate change have caused serious consequences in the context of increased risks related to energy security, food security, and cyber security. Given the weak growth and softer inflation in the early months, many countries have eased monetary policies to support growth.

Many international organizations have maintained or slowed down the global growth projecttions for 2025 compared to earlier anticipations. In January 2025, the World Bank (WB)[1] and the United Nations (UN)[2] projected global economic growth at 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, unchanged from their projections in June 2024. In March 2025, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)[3] and Fitch Ratings[4] forecasted global economic growth in 2025 at 3.1% and 2.3%, respectively, ease by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to their forecasts in December 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)[5] projected a 3.3% global economic growth, 0.1 percentage points higher than its forecast October 2024.

Regionally, the WB forecasted that the 2025 economic growth in the Philippines would reach 6.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year; Indonesia at 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points higher; Thailand at 2.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher; and Viet Nam at 6.8%, 0.3 percentage points lower. The IMF forecasted that the 2025 economic growth in the Philippines would be 6.1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in2024; Indonesia at 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points higher; Thailand at 2.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher; and Malaysia at 4.7%, 0.3 percentage points lower. UN anticipated that Vietnam’s 2025 economic growth would reach 6.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 2024; the Philippines at 6.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and Thailand at 3.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher.

Domestically, with the determination to create breakthrough momentum for socio-economic development, the Government and the Prime Minister have decisively directed ministries, sectors, and localities to focus on implementing Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, and related documents. Ministries, sectors, and localities have closely monitored the fluctuations in both the global and domestic economic situation while striving to implement tasks and solutions to achieve the set goals. Vietnam’s socio-economic performance in Q1/2025 achieved positive results amid global economic uncertainty. The results achieved by sectors in Q1 2025 are as follows:

I. ECONOMIC GROWTH

1. The year-on-year gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated to increase by 6.93%, the highest growth rate compared to the first quarter in the period 2020-2025[6]. This growth rate exceeded the target set for the first quarter of 2025 of the annual growth scenario of 6.5-7.0% in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP[7], but did not reach the target of the 2025 growth scenario of 8.0%[8] due to the rapid changes in the world and many uncertainties affecting our country’s socio-economy. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.74%, contributing 6.09% to the total added value of the entire economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 7.42%, contributing 40.17%; the service sector increased by 7.70%[9], contributing 53.74%.

The agricultural, forestry and fishery sector achieved growth target in the first quarter thanks to remarkable increase in the output of some perennial crops, exploited wood and aquaculture due to the application of high technology and techniques met the requirements of the domestic market and exports. The added value of the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.53% over the same period last year, contributing 0.32 percentage points to the total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 6.67% but only contributing 0.03 percentage points due to its small share in the total; the fisheries sector increased by 3.98%, contributing 0.09 percentage points.

Production of industrial and construction sector continued to flourish. The added value of the industry sector in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 7.32% over the same period last year (the same period last year increased by 6.71%), contributing 2.39 percentage points to the growth in total value added of the whole economy. The manufacturing was the growth driver of the whole economy with a growth rate of 9.28%[10], contributing 2.33 percentage points; the electricity production and distribution increased by 4.60%, contributing 0.18 percentage points; the water supply, water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 8.81%, contributing 0.05 percentage points; the mining decreased by 5.76%, contributing to the decrease by 0.17 percentage points. The construction increased by 7.99%, higher than the growth rate of 7.57% in the first quarter of 2024, contributing 0.48 percentage points.

In terms of the service sector, the high demand for consumption during the Lunar New Year and the number of international visitors to Viet Nam contributed to the relatively high growth of the trade and service sectors. The contribution of some service sectors to the total added value growth of the entire economy in the first quarter of this year was as follows: The transportation and storage increased by 9.90% over the same period last year, contributing 0.67 percentage points; accommodation and catering services increased by 9.31%, contributing 0.27 percentage points; the wholesales and retail trade; vehicles and motorcycles repairs increased by 7.47%, contributing 0.83 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance increased by 6.83%, contributing 0.41 percentage points; the information and communications increased by 6.66%, contributing 0.45 percentage points.

Regarding the economic structure in the first quarter of 2025, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 11.56%; the industry and construction sector accounted for 36.31%; the service sector accounted for 43.44%; the products taxes less subsidies on products accounted for 8.69%[11].

Regarding GDP expenditure in the first quarter of 2025, final consumption increased by 7.45% over the same period last year, the gross capital formation increased by 7.24%, the exports of goods and services increased by 9.71%, the imports of goods and services increased by 12.45%.

2. Agricultural production in the first quarter of 2025 continued to grow steadily. Thanks to favourable weather conditions combined with effective application of science and technology facilitated to achieve good production of perennial crops; livestock witnessed a good growth, diseases in livestock were well controlled. Forestry production was promoted with a focus on newly planted forest, wood production witnessed a steady growth. Aquaculture production increased due to the promotion of super-intensive farming and increased application of high technology.

a) Agricultural

Winter – Spring rice crop: As of March 20, 2025, the whole country  cultivated 2,949.4 thousand hectares of winter – spring rice, an increase of 17.2 thousand hectares compared to that  in 2024. The Northern localities reached 1,033.4 thousand hectares, a decrease of 7.6 thousand hectares compared to that  last year; the Southern localities reached 1,916.0 thousand hectares, an increase of 24.8 thousand hectares. Particularly, the Mekong River Delta region reached 1,508.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 20.7 thousand hectares, of which harvested area reached 1,060.3 thousand hectares, accounting for 70.3% of the cultivated area and an equal to 105.3% compared to  the same period last year, the yield was estimated  to reach 72.0 quintals/ hectare, a decline of  0.3 quintals/hectare compared to the previous spring crop; production was estimated at 10.9 million tons, up 109 thousand tons.

Autumn-Winter rice crop: As of   20/3 2025, the Mekong River Delta completed the harvest of the 2024-2025 autumn – winter rice crop with cultivation area reached 191.8 thousand hectares, an increase of 8.7 thousand hectares compared to that last year, the yield was estimated at 52.7 quintals/hectare, a decline of  0.6 quintals/hectare compared to that last year  due to the impact of  off-season rains during the flowering stage; the production was estimated at 1.0 million tons, an increase of 35.4 thousand tons.

Annual crops: As of 20/3/2025, localities in  the country planted 323 thousand hectares of maize, an equal to 100.2% compared to the same period last year; 95.1 thousand hectares of peanuts, an equal to 98.2%; 8.3 thousand hectares of soybeans, an equal to 96.8%; 42.5 thousand hectares of sweet potatoes, an equal to 93.6%; 571.6 thousand hectares of vegetables and beans, an equal to 101.2%.

Perennial plants: The production of  of fruit trees in the first quarter this year witnessed a  significantly growth compared to the same period last year, thanks to an increase in area for harvest  and an increase of the yield, such as: Durian reached 162.4 thousand tons, by 16.8%; banana reached 708.9 thousand tons, by 5.6%; mango reached 194.2 thousand tons, by  5.3%; orange reached 336.1 thousand tons, by  4.0%; grapefruit reached 161.0 thousand tons, by 2.5%; dragon fruit reached 330.9 thousand tons, by 2.1%. The production t of some perennial crops increased as following: Coconut reached 546.7 thousand tons, by 8.2%; pepper reached 145.6 thousand tons, by 4.8%; tea buds reached 178.3 thousand tons, by 2.9%; rubber reached 137.7 thousand tons, by 2.7%.

Livestock: Buffalo and cattle raising saw a decreased tendency  due to low economic efficiency and shrinking grazing area. Pig and poultry farming saw a positive signal for development, diseases were well controlled, live pig prices increased^[12], and production obtained higher economic efficiency when reducing the scale of production in small households at the same time increasing livestock enterprises with large-scale farming with closed process and lower production costs.

b) Forestry

In the first quarter of 2025, the area of newly concentrated planted forests nationwide was estimated at 45.6 thousand hectares, an increase of 17.8%, in comparision with  the same period last year; the number of scattered planted forestry trees was estimated  to reach  24.2 million trees, an increase of 4.4%; wood production  was estimated at 4,346.0 thousand m3, an increase of  16.6%. The area of damaged forests was 216.0 hectares, a shrink of 14.4%, in comparision with  the same period last year, of which: the area of cutting down  and destroyed forests was 167.1 hectares, a decline of  8.3%; the area of burned forests was 48.9 hectares, a decrease of 30.2%.

c) Fishery

The total fishery production in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated to reach 1,993.4 thousand tons, an increase of 2.8%, in comparison to the same period last year, of which: fish reached 1,480.3 thousand tons, an increase of 2.9%; shrimp reached 202.4 thousand tons, an increase of 4.6%; other aquatic products reached 310.7 thousand tons, an increase of 1.5%.

Aquaculture production in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 1,113.6 thousand tons, an increase of 5.1%, in comparison to the same period last year, of which: fish reached 806.7 thousand tons, by 5.4%; shrimp reached 170.0 thousand tons, by 5.5%; other aquatic products reached 136.9 thousand tons, by 2.5%.

Capture fisheries production in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated to reach 879.8 thousand tons, an increase of 0.1%, in comparison to the same period last year, of which: fish reached 673.6 thousand tons, equivalent to that of the same period last year; shrimp reached 32.4 thousand tons, by 0.1%; other aquatic products reached 173.8 thousand tons, by 0.8%. Particularly, marine capture fisheries production was estimated at 832.0 thousand tons, an increase of 0.2%, in comparison to the same period last year.

3. Industrial production in Q1 2025 continued to show positive growth, with an estimate year-on-year increase of index of industrial production (IIP) of 7.8%, the highest growth rate for Q1 since 2020. In particular, the manufacturing grew by 9.5%.

The index of industrial production (IIP) for Q1/2025 was estimated to increase by 7.8% compared to that of the same period last year  (Q1/2024 grew by 5.9%). Of which, the manufacturing and processing sector grew by 9.5% (Q1/2024 grew by 6.0%), contributing 7.9 percentage points to the overall growth rate. The electricity production and distribution  grew by 4.6%, contributing 0.4 percentage points; the water supply, waste management, and wastewater treatment  grew by 11.6%, contributing 0.2 percentage points; while the quarrying and mining  decreased by 4.7%, causing the reduction of the overall increase by 0.7 percentage points.

The production index for Q1/2025 in several key industrial sectors (II digits) showed a growth rate compared to the same period last year: motor vehicle production  increased by 36.1%; Production of leather and related products increased by 18.1%;  manufacture of wearing apparel increased by 14.6%; manufacture of furniture increased by 12.9%; Repair and installation of machinery and equipment grew by 12.8%; Manufacture of rubber and plastics products increased by 12.7%; manufacture of other transport equipment grew by 11.8%; Wood processing and production of products from wood, bamboo, rattan… increased by 11.0%; manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products grew by 10.6%; manufacture of textiles increased by 9.9%; Food processing production increased by 8.6%. On the other hand, the IIP ò  some sectors saw a  decrease: Crude oil productionand nutural gas fell by 9.6%; manufacture of electrical equipment decreased by 1.1%; manufacture of beverages dropped by 0.7%.

Some key industrial products in Q1/2025 saw an increase tendency compared to the same period last year: Cars increased by 81.5%; televisions increased by 22.9%; fabric woven from natural fibers increased by 18.6%; NPK mixed fertilizer increased by 15.8%; casual clothing  increased by 14.3%; mobile phone increased by 12.0; leather foot wearincreased by 9.1%; aquatic feed increased by 7.4%. On the other hand, some productswitnessed a decrease tendency compared to the same period last year: Natural gas (steam gas ) decreased by 12.9%; crude oil production  decreased by 6.4%; textile fabric from polyester or artificial yarn decreased by 2.4%; laminated steel decreased by 1.8%; phone accessories decreased by 1.7%; chemical paint decreased by 0.9%.

The consumption index of  the entire manufacturing  in Q1/2025 increased by 5.4% compared to the same period last year (an  increase of 8.2% of the same period last year).

The inventory index for the entire manufacturing  was estimated at March 31, 2025, an  increaseof 5.9% compared to the previous month and increased by 15.1% compared to the same period last year (with an increase of of 14.1% of the same period last year). The average inventory rate for the manufacturing  in Q1/2025 was 90.0% (compared to 68.7% in Q1/2024).

4.The total number of newly-established enterprises and resume operations  enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 was 72.9 thousand enterprises, an increase of 18.6% compared to the same period last year; 78.8 thousand withdrawals from the market, an increase of  7.0%

a) Enterprise registration status ^[13]

In the first quarter of 2025, the whole country had 36.4 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 356.8 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees was nearly 228.2 thousand employees, a decline of 4.0% in term of the number of enterprises, an increase of 1.3% in registered capital and a decline of 14.6% in the number of employees compared to the same period last year. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in the first quarter of 2025 reached 9.8 billion VND, an increase of 5.5% compared to the same period in 2024. The total amount of additional registered capital into the economy in the first three months reached  more than 1,386.7 trillion VND, an increase of  nearly 2.1 times  compared to  the same period of 2024.

Besides, there were over 36.5 thousand resumed enterprises (an increase of 54.8% compared to the same period of 2024), raising the total number of newly-established enterprises and resumed enterprises in the first 3 months of 2025 to over 72,9 thousand, an increase of 18.6% compared to the same period last year. On average, there were more than 24.3 thousand newly established and resumed enterprises per month.

Also in the first quarter of this year, the number of temporarily suspended enterprises was more than 61.4 thousand enterprises, an increase of 15.1%, compared to the same period last year; nearly 11.5 thousand enterprises temporarily inactive pending dissolution procedures, a decline of 26.1%; nearly 5.9 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 23.0%. On average, nearly 26.3 thousand withdrawals from the market per month.

b) Business tendency of the enterprises

Results of the business tendency survey of manufacturing enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 showed that: 24.1% of enterprises assessed that the business production situation was better than in the forth quarter of 2024; 47.1% of enterprises said that the business production situation was stable and 28.8% of enterprises faced difficulties^[14]. For the expected outcome of the second quarter of 2025, 45.8% of enterprises presented that the tendency would get better than the first quarter of 2025; 39.2% of enterprises said that business production situation would be stable and 15.0% of enterprises predicted that it would be more difficult. In which, the foreign direct investment sector showed the most optimistic signal with 87.0% of enterprises forecasted a better business production situation in the second quarter of 2024 and expected to remain stable; these rates in the state-owned enterprises sector and the non-state enterprises sector were 84.7% and 84.1% respectively.

Regarding production volume, 25.2% of enterprises pointed out the production volume in the first quarter of 2025 increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2024; 44.1% of enterprises considered it was stable and 30.7% of enterprises reported that the production volume reduced^[15]. For the trend in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter, 45.1% of enterprises forecasted an increase in the production volume; 40.9% of enterprises predicted stability and 14.0% of enterprises forecasted a decrease.

Regarding orders for goods, 23.3% of enterprises received more orders in the first quarter of 2025 than in the fourth quarter of 2024; 47.4% of enterprises had stable orders and 29.3% of enterprises recorded a decrease in orders^[16]. The tendency in the second quarter of 2025 compared to  the first quarter of 2024, 43.3% of enterprises expected an increase in orders; 42.8% of enterprises expected to have stable orders and 13.9% of enterprises expected a decrease in orders.

Regarding export orders, 20.6% of enterprises confirmed more export orders in the first quarter of 2025 than it had in the fourth quarter of 2024; 53.2% of enterprises experienced stable export orders and 26.2% of enterprises decreased export orders. The tendency in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first one, 37.8% of enterprises expected t an increase in export orders; 48.9% of enterprises expected a decrease, and 13.3% of enterprises expected a stability.

5. High domestic consumption demand during holidays and Tet; considerable number of international visitors to Viet Nam were factors contributing positively to the growth of the trade and service sector. Overall, in the first quarter of 2025, total retail sales of goods and services was estimated to increase by 9.9% year on year; passenger carried rose 17.6% and passenger traffic spread 14.7%; freight carried went up 15.4% and freight traffic expanded 8.9%; the international visitors to Viet Nam reached more than 6 million arrivals, an uptrend of 29.6%; the number of Vietnamese people exiting the country reached 2.7 million, 2.2 times higher compared to the same period last year.

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices in March 2025 was estimated at 570.9 trillion VND, a month-on-month rise of 1.7% and a year-on-year uptrend of 10.8%. Overall, in the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices was estimated at 1,708.3 trillion VND, an increase of 9.9% over the same period last year (the corresponding figure in 2024 was 8.6%), or an increase of 7.5% excluding the price factor (the corresponding figure in 2024 was 5.5%).

Passenger transport in March 2025 was estimated at 479.4 million persons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and passenger traffic was 25.8 billion persons-kilometers, a downturn of 1.2%. Overall, in the first quarter of 2025, passenger carried was estimated at 1,414.2 million persons, a year-on-year uptrend of 17.6% and passenger traffic was 77.7 billion persons.km, a rise of 14.7%.

Freight transport in March 2025 was estimated at 242.2 million tons of freight carried, an increase of 2.7% over the previous month and 45.5 billion tons.km of freight traffic, a rise of 3.8%. Overall, in the first quarter of 2025, freight transport was estimated at 715.8 million tons of freight carried, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and 138.6 billion tons.km of freight traffic, an increase of 8.9%.

Telecommunications turnover in the first quarter of 2025 at current prices was estimated at 94.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% (excluding the price factor, the increase was 4.6%). The total number of telephone subscribers by the end of March 2025 was estimated at 121.7 million subscribers, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Of which, the number of mobile subscribers at the above time was 119.6 million, a decrease of 3.6%. The number of DSL internet subscribers by the end of March 2025 recorded 23.6 million subscribers, an upturn of 2.9% compared to the same period last year.

The number of international visitors to Viet Nam^[17]: Favorable visa policies, enhanced tourism promotion programs, and prestigious tourism awards presented by international organizations have continued to attract increasing numbers of international visitors to Vietnam.

In the first quarter of 2025, international visitors to our country reached more than 6 million visitors, a year-on-year upturn of 29.6%. Of which, arrivals by air reached nearly 5.2 million visitors, accounting for 86.4% of international visitors to Viet Nam and a year-on-year increase of 34.0%; by road reached 685.5 million visitors, accounting for 11.4% and an uptrend of 9.6%; by sea reached 133.0 thousand visitors, accounting for 2.2% and a decline of 2.7%. By regions, visitors from Asia reached 4.7 million visitors, an increase of 33.8%; visitors from Europe reached 791.9 thousand visitors, a rise of 19.6%; visitors from the Americas reached 341.5 thousand visitors, a spread of 13.0%; visitors from Australia reached 160.1 thousand visitors, a build-up of 11.4%; visitors from Africa reached 12.3 thousand visitors, a downtrend of 5.9%;

The number of Vietnamese people leaving the country^[18] in the first quarter of 2025 reached 2.7 million persons, 2.2 times higher than the same period last year.

6. In the first quarter of 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) implemented flexible monetary policies, creating growth momentum and controlling inflation; insurance business activities achieved positive results; the security market was stable with stock market capitalization increasing by 1.1%.

As of March 25, 2025, total liquidity increased by 1.99% compared to the end of 2024 (the corresponding figure in 2024 was 0.23%), capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 1.36% (in the same period in 2024, the figure showed a decrease of 0.76%); credit growth of the economy reached 2.49% (2024 it recorded an increase of 0.26%).

Regarding the insurance market, in the first months of 2025, non-life insurance premium revenue, reinvestment capital into the economy, and total assets of insurance enterprises achieved a fairly good growth rate. Total insurance premium revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 56,575 billion VND, a rise of 5.6% over the same period in 2024, of which: Life insurance premium revenue was estimated at 34,561 billion VND, an upturn of 3.0%; non-life insurance premium revenue was estimated at 22,014 billion VND, a spread of 10.6%.

On the stock market, as of March 31^st, 2025, the VNIndex reached 1,306.86 points, a growth of 0.1% compared to the end of the previous month and a rise of 3.2% compared to the end of 2024; the market capitalization reached nearly 7,253.3 trillion VND, an upturn of 1.1%; the average trading value reached 18,152 billion VND per session, a downtrend of 13.6% compared to the average of 2024. As of the end of March 2025, the stock market had 724 listed stocks and fund certificates; 886 stocks registered for trading on the UPCoM floor with a total listed and registered trading value of 2,376 trillion VND, an increase of 3.5% compared to the end of 2024.

In the bond market, the average trading value in the first quarter of 2025 reached 13,652 billion VND per session, a spread of 15.7% over the average in 2024. By the end of March 2025, the bond market had 465 listed codes with a listing value of 2,409 trillion VND, an increase of 4.3% compared to the end of 2024.

In the derivatives market, the average trading volume in the derivatives market has reached nearly 174.9 thousand contracts per session, a decrease of 17.1% compared to the average in 2024; covered warrants reached 46,263.4 thousand warrants per session, a downturn of 6.6%.

7. The realized social investment in the first quarter of 2025 at current prices increased by 8.3% over the same period last year, much higher than the 5.5% increase in the first quarter of 2024. The realized foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 4.96 billion USD, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the first three months of the year since 2020.

The realized social investment in the first quarter of 2025 at current prices was estimated at 666.5 trillion VND, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, of which: the state sector was estimated at 184.2 trillion VND, accounting for 27.7% of the realized social investment and increasing 13.7% over the same period last year; the non-state sector reached 361.5 trillion VND, accounting for 54.2%, increasing 5.5%;  the foreign invested sector reached 120.8 trillion VND, accounting for 18.1% and rising 9.3%.

Total registered foreign investment capital in Viet Nam^[19] as of March 31^st, 2025^[20], reached 10.98 billion USD, an increase of 34.7% over the same period last year. Of which: Newly registered capital: 850 licensed projects with registered capital reaching 4.33 billion USD, an increase of 11.5% in the number of projects and a decrease of 31.5% in registered capital compared to the same period last year. Adjusted registered capital: 401 licensed projects from previous years registered to adjust investment capital to increase by 5.16 billion USD, 5 times higher than the same period last year. Foreign investors registered to contribute capital and buy shares in 810 times with a total capital contribution value of 1.49 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 83.7%.

The realized foreign direct investment in Viet Nam in the first three months of 2025 was estimated at 4.96 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.

Viet Nam’s outward foreign direct investment in the first three months of 2025^[21] had 30 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total capital of Viet Nam’s side of 233.6 million USD, 9.4 times higher than the same period last year; there were 05 projects with capital adjustment with the adjusted capital increasing by 5.4 million USD, 24.3 times higher. In total, Viet Nam’s outward foreign direct investment (newly granted and adjusted capital) was nearly 239 million USD, 9.5 times higher than the same period last year.

8. State budget revenue in Q1 2025 was estimated to increase by 29.3% over the same period last year[22]. State budget expenditure was estimated to increase by 11.6% over the same period in 2024, ensuring the needs of socio-economic development, national defense, security, state management, payment of due debts as well as timely payment to subjects according to regulations.

Total state budget revenue in Q1 2025 reached 721.3 trillion VND, equaling 36.7% of the annual estimate and up 29.3% against 2024. Of which, domestic revenue reached 646.3 trillion VND, equaling 38.7% of the annual estimate and increased by 34.5% against 2024; Revenue from crude oil reached 13.3 trillion VND, equaling 25.0 % of the annual estimate and down 15.3% against 2024; budget balance revenue from import and export activities reached 61.6 trillion VND, equaling 26.2% of the annual estimate and saw a year-on-year growth of 0.4%.

State budget expenditure in Q1 2025 was estimated at 428.2 trillion VND, equaling 16.8% of the annual estimate and an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year. Of which, recurrent expenditure in Q1 2025 reached 316.5 trillion VND, equaling 20.2% of the annual estimate and an increase of 16.8% against 2024; development investment expenditure reached 78.7 trillion VND, equaling to 10.0% and dropped by 2.5%; interest payment was 32.6 trillion VND, equaling 29.5% and increased by 1.7%.

9. Export and import of goods and services

a) Export and import of goods^[23]

In Q1 2025, the total export and import turnover of goods reached 202.52 billion USD, up 13.7% over the same period last year, of which exports and imports witnessed a year-on-year increase of 10.6% and 17.0%, respectively[24]. The trade balance of goods recorded a surplus of 3.16 billion USD.

 – Export turnover of goods in March 2025 reached 38.51 billion USD, up 23.8% over the previous month. Generally, in Q1 2025, export turnover reached 102.84 billion USD, increased by 10.6% against 2024. Of which, the domestic economic sector was 29.02 billion USD, went up 15.0%, accounting for 28.2% of total export turnover; the FDI sector (including crude oil) attained 73.82 billion USD, increased by 9.0%, sharing 71.8%. There were 18 products with export value of over 01 billion USD, contributing 84.5% to the total export turnover (05 products with export turnover of over 5 billion USD, accounting for 59.9%).

– Import turnover of goods in March 2025 reached 36.88 billion USD, increased by 12.9% over the previous month. Generally, in Q1 2025, import turnover of goods reached 99.68 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%. Of which the domestic economic sector reached 36.78 billion USD, went up 19.3%; the FDI sector gained 62.9 billion USD, up 15.8%. There were 17 imported products with a value of over 01 billion USD, accounting for 77.2% of total import turnover (02 products with import turnover of over 5 billion USD, accounting for 44.4%).

b) Export and import of services

– Services export turnover in Q1 2025, was estimated at 7.58 billion USD, up 21.7% over the same period last year, of which tourism services gained 4.2 billion USD (accounting for 55.4% of total turnover), an increase of 29.2%; transportation services reached 2.0 billion USD (accounting for 26.4%), up 24.2%.

– Services import turnover in Q1 2025 was estimated at 9.22 billion USD (of which is included in the transportation and insurance service fee of imported goods was 3.16 billion USD), up 18.0% against 2024, of which transportation services gained 3.73 billion USD (accounting for 40.5% of total turnover), up 17.5%; tourism services reached 3.4 billion USD (accounting for 36.9%), up 30.8%.

The services trade deficit in Q1 2025 was 1.64 billion USD.

10. In the first quarter of 2025, the global commodity market has had many fluctuations due to the global political, economic and social situation continuing to face many instabilities. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East has continued to develop complicatedly. Strategic competition between major countries has been increasingly fierce, the rise of protectionism has been creating new challenges for global trade. Domestically, the production of goods and services has maintained a stable growth direction, ensuring to meet consumption and export needs. The average CPI in the first quarter increased by 3.22% compared to the same period in 2024. The producer price index of agriculture, forestry and fishery, industry, services, price index of raw materials, fuels, materials used for production and the export price index of goods in the first quarter of 2025 tended to increase compared to the same period last year, while the import price index of goods decreased following the world market.

a) Consumer price index

The consumer price index (CPI) in March 2025 decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous month; increased by 1.3% compared to December 2024 and increased by 3.13% compared to the same period last year. CPI in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.22% compared to the same period last year. Core inflation in March 2025 increased by 0.25% compared to the previous month and increased by 3.1% compared to the same period last year. On average, core inflation in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.01% compared to the same period last year, lower than the average CPI (increased by 3.22%) mainly due to the prices of food, foodstuffs, electricity, and medical services, which are factors affecting the increase in CPI but are excluded from the list of goods for calculating core inflation.

b) Gold and US dollar price index

Domestic gold prices fluctuated in the same direction as the world gold prices. In March 2025, the world gold prices increased sharply and continuously set new peaks due to the combined impact of many economic and geopolitical factors. Domestically, the gold price index in March 2025 increased by 4.68% compared to the previous month; increased by 32.68% compared to the same period last year; increased by 10.75% compared to December 2024; on average in the first quarter of 2025, the gold price index increased by 31.45%.

The domestic US dollar price fluctuated in the opposite direction to the world price, averaging around 25,685 VND/USD on the free market. The US dollar price index in March 2025 increased by 0.77% compared to the previous month; increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year; increased by 0.92% compared to December 2024; on average in the first quarter of 2025, the US dollar price index increased by 3.63%.

c) Producer price index and input producer price index

The producer price index for agriculture, forestry and fishing in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 1.74% over the previous quarter and by 8.28% over the same period in 2024, of which: The producer price index for agriculture products and related services increased by 1.29% and 9.79%; forestry and related services increased by 1.65% and 3.96%; exploited and farmed aquatic products increased by 3.17% and 3.93%.

The producer price index for industry in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 1.25% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 2.24% compared to the same period in 2024, of which: The producer price index of mining products increased by 0.68% and increased by 0.07%; processed and manufactured industrial products increased by 1.16% and increased by 2.01%; electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air conditioning increased by 4.25% and increased by 10.71%; exploited natural water, waste and wastewater management and treatment services increased by 0.64% and increased by 2.47%.

The producer price index for services in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.91% over the previous quarter and by 4.74% over the same period in 2024, of which: Transportation and warehousing services increased by 3.03% and 6.22%; accommodation and catering services increased by 1.53% and 4.28%; information and communication increased by 0.5% and 0.24%; healthcare and social assistance activities increased by 15.11% and 19.61%; arts and entertainment increased by 0.24% and 0.67%.

The input producer price index in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.76% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 4.93% compared to the same period in 2024, of which: The price index of raw materials, fuels and materials used for agricultural, forestry and fishery production increased by 1.17% and increased by 1.9%; the price index of raw materials and fuels used for industrial processing and manufacturing increased by 2.92% and increased by 5.28%; the price index of raw materials and fuels used for construction increased by 0.71% and increased by 1.1%.

d) Merchandise import and export price index

Merchandise export price index in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 0.22% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 6.61% compared to the same period in 2024. Merchandise import price index in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 1.07% compared to the same period last year. The merchandise term of trade (TOT)^[25] in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 0.47% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 7.76% compared to the same period in 2024.

II. SOME SOCIAL ISSUES

1. The labor and employment situation in the first quarter of 2025 continued to maintain the pattern of the quarter with Lunar New Year, the labor force decreased compared to the previous quarter and increased compared to the same period last year. The average monthly income of employee increased compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year; the unemployment rate among working-age people decreased compared to the previous quarter and decreases compared to the same period last year.

The labor force aged 15 and over nationwide in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 52.9 million people, down 230.7 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and up 532.0 thousand people compared to the same period last year; the labor force participation rate in the first quarter of 2025 was 68.2%, down 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and down 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The rate of trained workers with degrees and certificates in the first quarter of 2025 was 28.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 1.0 percentage point compared to the same period last year.

The number of employed persons in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 51.9 million, down 234 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and up 532.1 thousand people compared to the same period last year. Of which, the urban area was 20.0 million people, down 115,9 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and up 433,6 thousand people compared to the same period last year; the rural area was 31.9 million people, down 118,1 thousand people and up 98,5 thousand people.

The number of underemployed people in the working age^[26] in the first quarter of 2025 was 797 thousand people, an increase of 32,4 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 136 thousand people compared to the same period last year. The underemployment rate in the working age in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.72%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.31 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Of which, the urban area was 0.98%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the rural area was 2.21%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points and a decrease of 0.36 percentage points.

The average income of employees in the first quarter of 2025 was 8.3 million VND/month, an increase of 131 thousand VND compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and an increase of 720 thousand VND compared to the same period in 2024. Of which, the average monthly income of male employees was 9.3 million VND/month, and 7.1 million VND/moth for female employees; the average income of employees in the urban areas was 10.1 million VND/month, and the figure in the rural areas was 7.2 million VND/month.

The unemployment rate in the working age^[27] in the first quarter of 2025 was 2.2%, down 0.02 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and down 0.04 percentage points compared to the same period last year, of which the rate in the urban areas was 2.38%; and the rate in the rural areas was 2.07%.

The percentage of workers without taking use of their full potential^[28] in the first quarter of 2025 was 3.9%. Of which, the percentage of workers without taking use of their full potential in the urban areas was 3.3% and 4.2% in rural areas.

The number of owned-account workers/employees in the first quarter of 2025 was 3.8 million, an increase of 168.2 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 117.4 thousand people compared to the same period last year.

2. According to the monthly labor and employment survey report, the income and living standards of households were improved. Social security work continued to receive attention, timely and practical implementation from authorities at all levels and sectors.

The rate of households with income in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period in 2024, the rate of households with unchanged income was 61.9%, the rate of households with decreased or undefined income was 3.6%. Compared to the reporting period of the fourth quarter of 2024, the rate of households with increased income rose by 0.4 percentage points, the rate of households with unchanged income, the rate of households with decreased or undefined income decreased by 0.4 percentage points. Compared to the first quarter of 2024, the rate of households with increased income grew by 3.4 percentage points, the rate of households with unchanged income decreased by 0.5 percentage points, the rate of households with decreased or undefined income declined by 2.9 percentage points.

The total amount of social security support for groups of beneficiary^[29] (from the beginning of the year to March 25, 2025) was more than 20.5 trillion VND, details for each specific group of subjects as follows: support for the national devotees and  their  relatives was nearly 10.0 trillion VND; support for social protected beneficiaries as regulated by Decree No. 20/2021/ND-CP was nearly 8.0 trillion VND; support for poor and  nearly-poor households, households in difficult circumstances, and social policy households was more than 2.4 trillion VND; other unusual support for emerging situation in the localities was more than 152.1 billion VND. Nearly 26.4 million health insurance cards/books/free medical examination and treatment cards were issued and given to beneficiaries.

Regarding rice support, from the beginning of the year to March 28, 2025, the Government had supported nearly 6.9 thousand tons of rice, including: 6.0 thousand tons to relieve hunger on the occasion of Lunar New Year for 402.6 thousand persons; 836.0 tons to relieve hunger during the 2025 crop gap for nearly 55.8 thousand persons.

Regarding the results of the program of joining hands to eliminate temporary and dilapidated houses in 2025 according to Decision No. 539/QD-TTg dated June 19, 2024 of the Prime Minister, as of March 28, 2025, localities had received 2,836.8 billion VND from ministries, branches, localities, banks, and corporations, reaching nearly 82.0% according to the assignment plan of the Central Steering Committee. There were 36 localities that had launched in the area, mobilizing over 2,832 billion VND. The whole country had supported the elimination of 168,000 temporary and dilapidated houses, of which 81,600 houses were inaugurated and 86,400 new houses were started.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, by the end of March 2025, the whole country had 6,001/7,696 communes (78.0%) meeting new rural standards; of which 2,363 communes met advanced new rural standards; 605 communes met model new rural standards; the average nationwide achieved 17.6 criteria/commune; 307 district-level units in 59 provinces and cities directly under the central government (accounting for 47.5% of districts nationwide) completed the tasks/met new rural standards, of which 29 districts met advanced new rural standards; 23 provinces and cities directly under the central government had 100% of communes meeting new rural standards^[30].

3. Although the epidemic situation in the first quarter of 2025 was under control, it still posed many potential risks of spreading, affecting people’s health and lives.

According to the report of the Ministry of Health, in the first quarter of 2025, the whole country had 52.2 thousand cases of rash fever suspected of measles (05 deaths); 20.3 thousand cases of dengue fever (02 deaths); 7.7 thousand cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (01 death); 82 cases of viral encephalitis; 19 deaths from rabies; 10 cases of meningitis caused by meningococcus.

The total number of people living with HIV in the country as of March 17, 2025 was 247.8 thousand people and the number of people dying from HIV/AIDS in the country as of that time was 116.2 thousand people.

Regarding food poisoning, in the first quarter of 2025 (from December 19, 2024 to March 17, 2025), there were 10 food poisoning incidents nationwide, causing 62 people to be poisoned (8 deaths).

4. The work of protecting and promoting the value of cultural heritage has been of interest and implementation by localities. High-performance sports have achieved some outstanding results.

During the quarter, many cultural activities took place vibrantly and diversely, including traditional festivals, heritage conservation, art and creative events. Some traditional festivals were held: Pho Hien Folk Culture Festival 2025 in Hung Yen, Cau Ngu Festival in Da Nang, Ky Cung – Ta Phu Temple Festival in Lang Son, Ba Chua Xu in Sam Mountain Festival in An Giang (recognized by UNESCO as a Representative Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity). In particular, the ceremony to receive the title of National Intangible Cultural Heritage for the craft of making Van Cu vermicelli in Hue City with rich and meaningful activities attracted a large number of people and tourists. In addition, many traditional festivals at temples and pagodas in localities were solemnly held, not only honoring the national cultural values ​​but also contributing to the development of local tourism. In addition, in the field of art and creativity, there were also many activities such as: The 42^nd National Television Festival in Binh Dinh honored outstanding creations in the media industry; the strong spread of the MV “Bac Bling”, not only successful in terms of entertainment but also contributed to promoting the image of Northern village culture to the public at home and abroad, demonstrating the influence of popular culture in modern life.

Regarding the mass sports movement, towards the 79^th anniversary of Viet Nam Sports Day, the Olympic Running Day for Public Health 2025 event was held simultaneously nationwide on March 23 in many provinces and cities across the country. Localities such as Ha Noi, Ho Chi Minh City, Yen Bai, Hue, Quang Ngai, Long An, Thanh Hoa, Da Nang organized this event on a large scale, contributing to promoting the movement “All people exercise following the example of great Uncle Ho” and “Healthy to build a career and defend the country”.

Regarding elite sports, since the beginning of the year, Vietnamese sports had achieved many impressive results at important international tournaments. In shooting, the Vietnamese team excellently won 11 medals (03 gold medals, 03 silver medals, 05 bronze medals) at the 2025 Asian Shooting Championship held in Thailand from February 9-22, 2025. As for football,  Ho Chi Minh City women’s team won a ticket to the semi-finals of the AFC Women’s Champions League on March 23, while the Viet Nam U22 team performed impressively at the CFA Team China tournament with three draws against strong opponents U22 South Korea and U22 Uzbekistan. The national men’s football team also had a favorable start for the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers with a 5-0 win over Laos. In Sepak Takraw, the Vietnamese women’s team made history by winning the first-ever Gold Medal at the Sepak Takraw World Cup held in India from March 20-25, 2025. Vietnamese Billiards made their mark with the runner-up position at the 3-Cushion Carom World Team Championship in Germany and a Vietnamese player won the championship at the 3-Cushion Carom World Cup billiards in Colombia. The women’s boxing team also contributed to the overall achievement with a bronze medal in the women’s 63 kg category at the Women’s Boxing World Championship in Serbia.

5. Traffic accidents^[31]

In the first quarter of this year, there were 4,536 traffic accidents nationwide, causing 2,477 deaths and 3,079 injuries. Compared to the previous year, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 30.6%; the number of deaths decreased by 12.0% and the number of injuries decreased by 39.5%. On average, 50 traffic accidents occurred per day in the first quarter of 2025 nationwide, causing 28 deaths and 34 injuries.

6. Damage caused by natural disasters^[32], environmental pollution, and fires and explosions significantly affected the lives of people in some localities

In the first quarter of 2025, natural disasters caused 07 deaths and missing, 06 injuries; nearly 10.1 thousand hectares of rice and crops damaged; 173 houses collapsed, swept away and damaged. The total value of property damage caused by natural disasters in the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at 116.7 billion VND, down 31.8% compared to the same period in 2024.

Also in the first quarter of 2025, 5,738 environmental violations were detected, of which 5,158 cases were handled with a total fine of 70.5 billion VND, down 15.5% over the same period last year. There were 940 fires and explosions nationwide, causing 19 deaths and 23 injuries, with estimated damage of 51.1 billion VND, down 28.7% over the same period last year./.

[1] WB, January 2025, “Global Economic Prospects for 2025”, https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects,, accessed March 24, 2025.

[2] UN (January 2025), “World economic situation and outlook for January 2025”, https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2025/, accessed March 24, 2025.

[3] OECD (March 2025), “OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report “Steering through Uncertainty”, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.html,, accessed March 24, 2025.

[4] FR (March 2025), “Global Economic Outlook 2025”, https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-march-2025-18-03-2025, accessed March 24, 2025.

[5] IMF (January 2025), “World Economic Outlook Update – Global Growth: Divergence and Uncertainty”, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025, accessed March 24, 2025.

[6]The year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter in 2020-2025 was respectively: 3.21%; 4.85%; 5.42%; 3.46%; 5.98% and 6.93%.

[7]The GDP growth scenario for the whole year of 2025 was from 6.5% to 7.0%, of which the growth in the first quarter of 2025 is 6.2% to 6.6%.

[8]Accordingly, the growth target for the first quarter of 2025 was 7.7%.

[9] The growth rate of added value of the service sector in the first quarter compared to the same period last year in 2020-2025 is respectively: 3.03%; 4.51%; 4.99%; 6.99%; 6.24% and 7.70%.

[10]The added value of the manufacturing in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 7.49% over the same period last year.

[11] The corresponding structure for the same period in 2024 is 11.65%; 36.38%; 43.12%; 8.85%.

[12] The Pork price index in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 19.91%, in comparison with the same period last year, and in March 2025, increased by 23.78%, in comparison with r the same period last year.

[13] Source: National Business Registration Information System, Department of Private Enterprise and Collective Economy Development, Ministry of Finance, received April 02^rd, 2025. Implementing Decree No. 62/2024/ND-CP dated June 07^th, 2024 of the Government (effective from August 01^st, 2024), the data period on business registration in the month is calculated from the 1st to the last day of the reporting month. Particularly for time indicators (enterprises returning to operations, enterprises temporarily suspending business for a limited period of time, enterprises temporarily suspending operations awaiting dissolution procedures), the data period is the months before the time. August 01^st, 2024 is calculated from the 21^st of the month preceding the reporting month to the 20^th of the reporting month.

[14] Corresponding indexes of the forth quarter of 2024: 38.0% of enterprises rated that their production volume increased compared to the previous quarter; 41.8% of businesses thought it was stable and 20.2% assessed that production volume would decrease.

[15] Corresponding index of the fourth quarter of 2024: 38.8% of enterprises assessed that their production volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased compared to the third quarter of 2024; 40.5% of enterprises said it was stable and 20.7% of enterprises assessed that production volume decreased..

[16] Corresponding indexes of the forth quarter of 2024: 35.5% of enterprises had orders increasing compared to the previous quarter; 43.5% of businesses had stable orders and 21.0% of businesses had reduced orders.

[17] According to the report of the Border Gate Department, the Border Guard Command, the Ministry of National Defence and the Immigration Department on March 27, 2025.

[18] Vietnamese citizen leaving Viet Nam’s territory by air.

[19] Including: Newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and value of capital contribution and share purchase of foreign investors.

[20]According to the report of the Foreign Investment Agency, Ministry of Finance, received on March 31, 2025.

[21] Overseas investment, because the licensing process was not completed in March 2025, no licenses were granted in March, and the three-month figure remained unchanged compared to the two-month figure.

[22] The growth rate of state budget revenue in Q1 2025 recorded a moderate growth thanks to the positive economic growth since the late months of 2024. Besides, the management and review of revenue sources, promotion of digital transformation, application of information technology in tax management, tax refunds; prevention of revenue loss, and handling of tax arrears also witnessed a positive impact on state budget revenue.

[23] The value of export turnover is calculated at F.O.B price and import turnover is calculated at C.I.F price (including transportation and insurance costs of imported goods).

[24] Total import and export turnover of goods in Q1 2024 reached 178.1 billion USD, up 15.5% against the previous year, of which exports and imports reached 92.9 billion USD (up 16.8%) and 85.2 billion USD (up 14.1%), respectively.

[25] Merchandise export price index/Merchandise import price index.

[26] Underemployed people of working age include those with jobs who want to work overtime; willing to work overtime; actually working less than 35 hours/week.

[27] An unemployed person is a person aged full 15 years or older who, in the reference period, has all three factors: not currently working, looking for a job and ready to work. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the unemployed compared to the labor force.

[28] Labor with a need for work but not being able to meet enough work (also known as underutilized labor) includes those who are unemployed, underemployed and a group outside the labor force willing to work. job but not looking for a job or looking for a job but not ready to work right away. The rate of underutilized labor is the ratio between the number of employees who are in need of work but are not fully satisfied with the work to the total number of employees who have the need to work in the economy.

[29] According to a summary report from localities, from the beginning of the year until now.

[30] Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Hai Duong, Ninh Binh, Quang Ninh, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Can Tho, Bac Lieu, Tra Vinh, Ha Tinh, Tien Giang, Dong Thap, Lam Dong.

[31] According to a quick report from the Office of the Ministry of Public Security and the Vietnam Maritime and Waterways Administration (Ministry of Construction) on March 29, 2025.

[32] Summary of Reports from the Provincial and Municipal Statistics Offices, reporting period from February 26 to March 25, 2025.