Press release In-depth analyses derived from the findings of the Intercensal Population and Housing Survey and the Survey on the Socio-economic Situation of 53 Ethnic Minority Groups

To provide robust data and scientific evidence for the formulation, monitoring, and evaluation of socio-economic development policies, the National Statistic Office, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), organized a workshop on 23 December 2025 to release a series of in-depth analytical studies based on the Intercensal Population and Housing Survey and the Survey on the Socio-economic Conditions of the 53 Ethnic Minority Groups. The event showcased three key reports:

1. The report “Disparities and Multidimensional Child Poverty among Ethnic Minority Populations in Vietnam” provides a comprehensive analysis of living conditions and access to basic social services among ethnic minority communities, as well as the extent of multidimensional poverty among ethnic minority children. The report underscores substantial variations across ethnic groups and geographic regions. For instance, the illiteracy rate among ethnic minorities overall is 15.1%, while among very small ethnic groups (with fewer than 10,000 people) it rises to 32.8%-more than twice the rate observed in larger ethnic groups (13.3%).

The analysis indicates that these disparities largely stem from the multiple challenges faced by ethnic minority communities, including limited infrastructure, inadequate sanitation conditions, low educational attainment, and child marriage. These disadvantages do not occur in isolation; rather, they overlap and compound, intensifying multidimensional vulnerabilities.

The report underscores the pivotal role of education, particularly secondary education for girls, in reducing intergenerational poverty and lowering the prevalence of child marriage. These findings highlight the need for integrated and adaptive policy interventions that account for the specific circumstances of each ethnic group.

2. The report “Internal Migration in Vietnam, 2009-2024” synthesizes and analyzes the trends, scale, composition, and drivers of internal migration over the past 15 years, shedding light on its linkages with the labor market, urbanization, and population distribution.

The findings show that the scale of internal migration has declined in recent years, falling from a peak of approximately 6.4 million migrants during 2014-2019 to about 3.8 million in the 2019-2024 period.

Urban-to-urban migration accounts for the largest share (over 70%), indicating that most migrants leaving urban areas tend to relocate to other urban centers. Short-distance mobility has also become increasingly common, reflecting migrants’ desire for residential stability and reduced relocation costs. Although the overall scale of internal migration has declined sharply, the number of ethnic minority migrants has decreased only slightly, resulting in a significant increase in their proportion among the total migrant population. These shifts suggest that socio-economic development policies in rural areas, peri-urban zones, and emerging satellite cities are beginning to show positive effects by creating local employment opportunities. However, continued efforts are needed to refine policies in a more flexible and inclusive manner, expanding access to jobs and social services at the local level, supporting short-term and inter-regional mobility, and strengthening targeted interventions to ensure that ethnic minority populations can equitably access essential services throughout the migration process and during settlement.

These research findings provide critical statistical evidence to support the assessment of current conditions and the refinement of regional development, urban planning, labor market, and population distribution policies.

3. The report “Vietnam Population Projections, 2024-2074” provides a comprehensive overview of projected trends in population size, age and sex structure, and population distribution over the next half century. It reflects the demographic transition currently underway in Vietnam, which in many ways mirrors global patterns.

The projections show that Vietnam’s population will continue to grow in the coming decades, although the pace of growth is expected to slow, reaching its peak around 2059 under the medium-fertility variant before shifting into a period of slower growth or stabilization. Over the next 50 years, from 2024 to 2074, Vietnam’s population is projected to increase by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17.0% under the low-fertility (1.45 children per woman), medium-fertility (1.85 children per woman), and high-fertility (2.01 children per woman) variants respectively, reaching 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million people.

The demographic window of opportunity (defined as the period during which every two people of working age, 15-64, support one dependent person-either under age 15 or aged 65 and above) is projected to close in the not-too-distant future, ending around 2036. This marks the transition into an aged and then super-aged society, reflected in the shrinking proportions of children and working-age adults alongside the rapid growth of the older population. In addition, the persistent sex imbalance at birth, which is expected to continue until the mid-21st century, will further shape the population’s sex structure. Urbanization will also continue, though at a slower pace, as the share of the urban population approaches the 50% threshold. Internal migration remains one of the key factors reshaping population distribution across regions, reflecting disparities in socio-economic development and the varying capacity of localities to attract and utilize labor.

Based on demographic trends and the projection variants, the report puts forward several policy implications to help Vietnam proactively adapt to its emerging population context. These recommendations focus on fully leveraging the demographic window of opportunity, responding effectively to population ageing, and addressing the long-term consequences of the persistent sex imbalance at birth. Together, these factors are critical for ensuring the sustainable development of the country’s human capital and strengthening the demographic foundation for the future.

Overall, the findings reaffirm the essential role of statistical data and scientific evidence in shaping population, labor, social protection, and sustainable development policies.

The workshop provided a platform for government agencies, experts, and development partners to exchange views on the key findings, clarify policy implications, and promote the effective use of statistical survey results in national governance.