Consumer price index in September, 2020 increased by 0.12% over the previous month and by 0.01% over December last year – all of them were the lowest level in the period of 2016-2020[1], mainly due to the price of education service prices were adjusted to increase in line with the roadmap to approach market prices, price of electricity for living increased because the need to use electricity in hot weather, price of domestic rice went up due to Vietnam rice export’s price reached highest level since 2011. On average, in 9 months of 2020, the consumer price index increased by 3.85% over the same period last year. The average merchandise term of trade of 9 months of 2020 decreased by 0.72% as compared to the same period of 2019, reflecting unfavorable Vietnam goods export’s price to abroad compared to the price of imported goods from abroad to Vietnam.
a) Consumer price index
Consumer price index (CPI) in September 2020 increased by 0.12% over the previous month. September CPI of 6/11 major groups of goods and services increased over the previous month, of which the education group had the highest increase of 2.08% (educational services grew by 2.29%), making the general CPI increase by 0.12% because 44 provinces and cities in the month implemented the roadmap to increase tuition fee for the new school year 2020-2021 and prices of books and school supplies increased due to the need to prepare for the new school year[2]. Housing and construction materials increased by 0.62%, mainly due to the increase of 3.23% in electricity’s price for living (making the overall CPI increase by 0.11%) and price of gas by 0.52%. Garments, hats and shoes grew by 0.1% due to the need to buy clothes and shoes for the new school year; beverage and cigarette increased by 0.05%; medicine and medical service group grew by 0.01%; other goods and services increased by 0.02%. Price index of five groups decreased: Food and catering services decreased by 0.31%, of which food rose by 0.53% due to rising rice prices by 0.71%; foodstuff declined by 0.59%[3]. Culture, entertainment and tourism group decreased by 0.2% due to a decrease in the demand for tourism when the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic resumed[4]; transport group declined by 0.12%[5]; household appliances decreased by 0.06%; postal services and telecommunications decreased by 0.02%.
Generally in the third quarter of 2020, CPI increased by 0.92% compared to the previous quarter and rose by 3.18% compared to the third quarter of 2019, of which food and catering services grew by 11.47% compared to the third quarter of 2019; education rose by 3.52%; medicine and medical service went up by 1.51%; beverage and cigarette expanded by 1.36%; household appliances increased by 1.11%; housing and construction materials increased by 0.67%; garments, hats and shoes went up by 0.56%; other goods and services increased by 2.48%. Price index of 3 groups decreased: transport declined by 13.39%; culture, entertainment and tourism decreased by 1.65%; postal services and telecommunications reduced by 0.54%.
CPI in September 2020 increased by 0.01% over December 2019 and rose by 2.98% over the same period of 2019. Average CPI of 9 months of 2020 increased by 3.85% compared to the same period of 2019. CPI of 9 months in 2020 increased compared to the same period last year due to a number of main reasons as follows: (i) The price of food products increased by 4.03% over the same period last year (making the general CPI increase by 0.15%); (ii) The price of foodstuff products increased by 14.31% over the same period last year, of which the price of living weight pig increased by 70.55% (making the general CPI increase by 2.39%); (iii) Price of medicine and medical service because the Covid-19 epidemic in the world is still complicated, so the demand for this product is still high; (iv) The price of beverages, cigarettes and ready-made clothes increased highly, by 1.58% and 0.73% respectively over the same period in 2019.
Besides, there were a number of factors that contributed to curb the CPI of 9 months in 2020: (i) The price of petroleum and oil decreased by 22.12% (making the general CPI decline by 0.8%); price of oil decreased by 30.1%; price of gas decline by 1.68%; (ii) The need for travel and tourism of the people decreased due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, causing the package travel service’s price to decrease by 2.13% over the same period last year; freight charge such as trains and airplanes have decreased[6]; (iii) The Government implemented a series of support packages for people and producers who had difficulties due to the Covid-19 epidemic such as the support package of Vietnam Electricity (EVN) to reduce electricity prices and electricity bills for customers, so price of electricity in May and June this year decreased by 0.28% and 2.72% respectively over the previous month; (iv) Authorities at all levels and sectors actively implemented measures to prevent complicated developments of the Covid-19 epidemic, to ensure the balance of supply and demand and stabilize the market.
Core inflation in September 2020 decreased by 0.02% over the previous month and increased by 1.97% over the same period last year. Average core inflation of 9 months of 2020 grew by 2.59% compared to the same period of 2019.
b) Gold price index and US dollar
Domestic gold prices fluctuated according to the world gold prices. Gold prices fell because investors sold to take profits after a period of strong gold price increases, the US economy recovered better than expected after being affected by the Covid-19 epidemic and the dollar index increased against major world market currencies. Average world gold price as of September 28th, 2020 decreased by 2.55% compared to August 2020. Domestically, gold price index in September 2020 decreased by 0.33% over the previous month; an increase of 32.37% compared to December 2019; increased by 30.33% over the same period last year.
The US Federal Reserve (FED) suddenly announced that it would keep interest rates close to 0% and keep this interest rate unchanged until 2023 and forecast that the US economy would recover from the Covid-19 epidemic. Domestically, the foreign currency reserve of the State Bank of Vietnam is abundant to meet the foreign currency demand of importing enterprises. The US dollar price index in September 2020 decreased by 0.05% over the previous month; went up by 0.12% compared to December 2019 and dropped 0.17% over the same period of 2019.
c) Producer price index
Producer price index (PPI) for agriculture, forestry and fishery products in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 1.43% compared to the previous quarter and by 10.99% compared to the same period last year, of which the PPI for agriculture products increased by 2.46% and by 16.1%; forestry increased by 0.03% and decreased by 0.1%; fishery reduced by 1.52% and by 2.19%. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the PPI for agriculture, forestry and fishery products increased by 8.41% over the same period in 2019, of which the PPI for agriculture products increased by 12.06%; forestry decreased by 0.22%; fishery went down by 1.18%.
PPI for industry products in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 0.81% over the previous quarter and went down by 0.95% over the same period last year, of which the PPI for mining and quarrying increased by 9.14% and declined by 9.86%; manufacturing increased by 0.4% and fell by 0.36%; production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air conditioner increased by 1.95% and fell by 3.68%; water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 0.29% and by 2.68%, respectively. Generally, in 9 months of this year, the PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.54% over the same period last year, of which the PPI for mining and quarrying decreased by 8.21%; manufacturing decreased by 0.2%; production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, steam and air conditioner decreased by 1.1%; water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 2.73%.
PPI for services in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous quarter and fell by 1.51% over the same period last year, of which the service producer price indexes (SPPI) of some sectors were as follows: transport and storage service increased by 2.71% and went down by 6.08%; education and training services increased by 0.83% and by 2.67%; accommodation and food service activities increased by 0.34% and 0.41%; human health and social work activities increased by 0.05% and by 0.77%. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the SPPI decreased by 0.58% over the same period in 2019, of which the PPI of transport and storage service decreased by 5.28%; information and communication fell by 3.06%; education and training grew by 3.71%; human health and social work activities increased by 2.63%; accommodation and food service activities increased by 1.08%.
d) Merchandise import and export price index
Merchandise export price index in the third quarter of this year increased by 0.17% over the previous quarter and decreased by 1.55% over the same period last year, of which the price index of agricultural products and foodstuff decreased by 0.98% and by 4.1%; fuel group grew by 9.13% and reduced by 31.82%; other manufacturing products remained unchanged over the previous quarter and increased by 0.24% over the same period last year. Export price index in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year of some commodities was as follows: Crude oil increased by 10.37% and fell by 36.92%; petroleum oil, refined increased by 8.32% and declined by 23.39%; tea went up by 6.3% and by 14.12%; rice went up by 3.1% and by 6.22%; ores and other minerals grew by 2.48% and by 2.44%; rubber decreased by 3.26% and by 6.67%; iron and steel declined by 3.18% and by 8.03%; fishery products went down by 2.47% and by 9.03%; electronic parts (including TV parts), mobile, computer and their parts reduced by 2.06% and by 0.04%. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the merchandise export price index decreased by 1.33% over the same period in 2019, of which agricultural products and foodstuffs decreased by 2.39%; fuel group declined by 27.43%; other manufacturing products increased by 0.08%. Export price index of 9 months of 2020 of some commodities was as follows: Crude oil decreased by 32.28%; petroleum oil, refined declined by 19.27%; ỏ went down by 6.17%; fishery products reduced by 6.17%; coffee declined by 5.98%; ores and other minerals grew by 10.42%; tea went up by 9.73%; precious stones, precious metal increased by 7.07%.
Merchandise import price index in the third quarter of this year increased by 0.03% over the previous quarter and fell by 0.95% over the same period of 2019, of which import price index of agricultural products and foodstuff fell by 0.12% and increased by 0.73%; fuel group increased by 7.1% and decreased by 3.31%; other manufacturing products decreased by 0.29% and by 0.93%, respectively. Import price indexes in the third quarter of some productswere as follows: Petroleum oil, refined increased by 9.83% against the previous quarter and decreased by 2.65% against the same period last year; rubber increased by 2.03% and by 0.55%; animal or vegetables oil and fats went up by 1.59% and by 13.74%; liquefied petroleum gas decreased by 3.61% and by 18.17%; unassembled and parts for car edged down by 2.57% and by 2.29%; fishery products reduced by 2.12% and by 2.55%. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the merchandise import price index of goods decreased by 0.62% over the same period in 2019, of which agricultural products and foodstuffs increased by 0.89%; fuel group decreased by 3.6%; other manufacturing products decreased by 0.55%. Import price index of 9 months of 2020 of some commodities was as follows: liquefied petroleum gas decreased by 14.63%; chemicals edged down by 7.18%; petroleum oil, refined decreased by 3.48%; articles of paper grew by 11.03%; animal or vegetables oil and fats went up by 7.78%; vegetables and fruits increased by 4.76%.
Merchandise term of trade[7] in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 0.14% compared to the previous quarter and decreased by 0.6% over the same period last year. Generally, in 9 months of 2020, the merchandise term of trade decreased by 0.72% over the same period in 2019, of which the merchandise term of trade for chemicals increased by 7.74%; wood and articles of wood increased by 1.58%; rubber increased by 0.85%; electronic parts (including TV parts), mobile, computer and their parts grew by 0.83%; petroleum oil, refined decreased by 16.35%; iron and steel decreased by 5.48%; fishery products reduced by 4.5%; vegetables and fruits decreased by 2.02%.
[1]CPI growth rate in September over the previous month of period of 2016-2020: 0,54%; 0,59%; 0,59%; 0,32%; 0,12% respectively. CPI growth rate in September over December last year in period of 2016-2020: 3,14%; 1,83%; 3,2%; 2,2%; 0,01% respectively.
[2]Prices of textbook rose 0.57%; the price of stationery and other school supplies increased by 0.28%; prices of pens of all kinds increased by 0.52%.
[3] Mainly due to the price of pork decreased by 3.51%; price of processed products from pork decreased (price of roast meat, spring rolls decreased by 0.95%, price of canned and other processed meat decreased from 0.04% to 0.24%); price of chicken meat declined by 1%, price of other poultry meat declined by 0.68%; price of fresh fishery products decreased by 0.36%.
[4]Price of package travel service decreased by 0.37%; price of hotels and guest houses decreased by 0.07%.
[5]Mainly due to the impact of 3 adjustments of petrol and oil price on August 27th, 2020, September 11st, 2020, and September 26th, 2020, the petroleum price index decreased by 0.05%. Besides, train fares decreased by 1.26% and price of car declined by 0.29%.
[6]Price of air ticket decreased by 33.68%; train fares went down by 1.57%.
[7] Merchandise export price index/ Merchandise import price index.